In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we are going to look at Bitcoin dominance and the possible signs of a surprise altcoin season developing during the bearish macro backdrop.
Take a look at the video below:
VIDEO: Bitcoin Dominance Analysis (BTC.D): September 7, 2022
For today’s video, we are going to look at Bitcoin dominance on monthly and weekly timeframes. There is potentially a notable breakdown in progress that – based on its significance – could be telling of something bigger: a possible altcoin season that no one is expecting.
Bitcoin Dominance To Submit To Altcoins
Typically, altcoins only perform well during a bull market. So for BTC.D to be breaking down is very unusual considering the current macro backdrop.
Still, BTC dominance is breaking down from a diagonal trend line on price and the Relative Strength Index. The LMACD is also clearly displaying a struggle between bulls and bears. Or more accurately put, Bitcoin versus altcoins, with altcoins currently taking the lead.
Is an altcoin season about to appear? | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com
The Signal From The Last Alt Season Is Back
Moving to weekly timeframes on Bitcoin dominance, trend lines become a little more clear. Price is breaking down from both diagonal and horizontal support of great importance. Comparing the past cycle, we can see a similar setup where dominance could make a lower low, while the RSI forms a higher low and bullish divergence.
On the weekly Ichimoku, Bitcoin dominance has been rejected by the cloud. The previous time price dropped from the cloud, it took BTC dominance from 70% to where we are currently at around 39% market share.
Will we get a repeat of the last altcoin season? | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com
Could This Be A Possible Target For Crypto Market Share?
So, where then could our target possibly be in terms of new lows set in Bitcoin dominance? One potential area, is yet another retest of neckline resistance turned support from the last bottom formation – an inverse head and shoulders. The target would take BTC.D to around 32% dominance.
Could 32% dominance be the potential target? | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com
How Ethereum And The Merge Might Influence BTC.D
To further illustrate why this setup could come to fruition, we have flipped BTC.D upside down and compared it with ETHBTC. The primary factor driving a historical altcoin season is the Ethereum Merge.
In the chart below, we can see that Ethereum is very much responsible for much of the current Bitcoin dominance chart formation. This makes sense considering Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap and has the largest impact on this metric outside of Bitcoin itself.
Bitcoin dominance is driven heavily by the ETHBTC pair | Source: CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D on TradingView.com
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com