Has the Bitcoin market already bottomed out?
September is to be an action-packed month for the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency industry, given the plethora of events that are unfolding.
First and foremost, there is the uncertainty of the Ethereum merge and what that could mean for the markets.
Secondly, the first few Bitcoin from Mt. Gox are to be distributed to creditors, meaning that they could be sold on the market.
Finally, Cardano is also having a hard fork in September as part of their hotly anticipated Vasil upgrade. The team at IOG promise that the upgrade will make the Cardano blockchain far more scalable.
These three events, affecting three of the largest blockchains in the entire space, are all happening in the same month, and could foster a great degree of uncertainty
Could Bitcoin fall to $17k and below?
Since reaching an ATH of $69k, Bitcoin has since retraced to where it currently stands, just under $19k.
Bitcoin continues to hover just above the local low, and despite fighting back somewhat to reach $24k, the level could not be sustained. The incentives for bears to take profits took hold, and the price has since fallen back down.
On chain, this is reflected quite clearly by examining whale activity, and the degree to which they are sending or removing Bitcoin from exchanges.
It is not always easy to use on-chain analysis to determine everything that is happening in Bitcoin, but what is shown is that over longer timeframes, there is a clear trend of accumulation.
$11k and pray?
Some speculators, such as Richard Heart, have commented on the fact that there are a whole of reasons for which the Bitcoin price may be likely to suffer further, and that the price could well continue to fall to $11k.
Significantly, there is still a large discount on GBTC when compared to NAV, which means that institutional investors are unlikely to join the fray any time soon. Grayscale’s Bitcoin represents over 3% of the total supply, and it is where an extremely large amount of institutions curate allocate their exposure.
Moreover, there is also concern that the wider macroeconomic environment has significant troubles at the moment, and the high degree of correlation between traditional markets and cryptocurrency markets means that Bitcoin could well fall much lower.